Launch a company

I came across this article which lists Gartner’s top 10 strategic technologies for 2009. Gartners top 10 strategic technologies for 2009.

1.      Virtualization

2.      Cloud computing

3.      Servers (beyond blades)

4.      Web oriented architectures

5.      Enterprise mashups

6.      Specialized systems

7.      Social software / networking

8.      Unified communications

9.      Business intelligence

10.  Green IT

In 2008, Gartner released the Tech Hype Cycle Graph below:

The explanation of the hype cycle in the article is as follows: The hype cycle says that interest in a new technology enters a phase of “excited speculation about all the benefits new technology will offer” which eventually reaches a peak of “inflated expectations.” This is followed by a cold, hard “trough of disillusionment.” Eventually some practical business applications emerge – but which business applications, leveraging what technology, is hard to say.

As you can see in the technology hype cycle in 2008, Green IT and Social computing were in the “Peak of inflated expectations”, moving towards “Trough of disillusionment” and Gartner lists them in the bottom of the top 10 strategic technologies for 2009.

What does this mean for tech entrepreneurs? Why should we care about the Gartner tech hype cycle?

IMHO, the hype cycle is a good reference, to determine the business viability of your big idea..where on the Gartner hype cycle does your big idea lie? If its not listed on the hype cycle, based on your market research and analysis, where do u think your big idea lies?

Jumping into a business area for which the hype is at its peak, is certainly risky..However, not jumping in then may also mean lost opportunity and risk of not being the first mover..Catch 22..

I presume most entrepreneurs start exploring an opportunity in the “Technology Trigger” phase, when most of the research, prototype development is done and are well positioned to capitalize on the potential opportunity by the time there is a lot of excitement and publicity in the marketplace and media.

I cant help but wonder, what risk mitigation approaches do entrepreneurs need to account for when jumping onto a path breaking solution area?